Analysis

So, how is the Meadows market?

It is about normal, with the exception that we have too many short sales and too many foreclosures – and the non-distressed homes have a bit of problem competing.

If they want to sell, they must compete.

If there is any solace for Buyers and Sellers, it is that distressed properties carry with their low prices the hassle of dealing with banks — and that makes non-distressed properties competitive if they are priced anywhere near the distressed properties.

There are a lot of homes that are not priced competitively, but that does not necessarily mean that the homes will not sell at a competitive price.

 ome Sellers just need an offer to get them off the dime. Even a low offer is a reality check for those who are badly overpriced, and we have some homes that are badly overpriced.

Tomorrow I’ll run the list of homes available.

November 14 Update

First, let me apologize for having been off this Blog for several months while I recovered from a five-way heart by-pass. It will take some time for my readership to return, and I understand that.

There were two new listings in the Meadows this past week. One oat 9642 Indian Creek, a 4/3 of 3,000 s.f. and at a price of $495,000. The other is at 28021 Grassy Way, a 3/2 of 1,766 s.f. for $570,000.

Just looking at the numbers, Grassy Way must be on an oil well, or a gold mine.

One home went into Pending…10546 Aspen Glen.

Two homes in the Meadows closed escrow – 28333 Glenmeade Way, 1,590 s.f.,  which closed at $350,000, and 9510 Sage Hill Way which closed at $725,000. The Sage Hill property closed at a high sales number because it had a pool, was 4,800+ s.f. and was on an especially large lot.

Update, Sept. 19

Although I have sufficient strength to do this once a week, I have been unable to maintain my daily political and real estate daily blogs, which are only spasmodic at best.

This past week, there were 29 new listings in Zip Code 92026, of which two were in Hidden Meadows, one of which did not turn up in the list on the obverse for reasons best known to the gnomes who maintain the data base. It is on High Vista, 2,686 s.f.,  3/3 on 1.1 acres for $539,000.

That is an astounding price for ANYTHING on High Vista.

The other one is:

Price 649,000, 10451 PINION TRAIL, s.f.3266, BR4, BA3, Story1, Built2004, Acres0.38, Mkt. Time3, $/s.f.199

In the past week, two Meadows homes went into “Pending” of the 21 in the Zip Code, including one at 9943 Sage Hill and one at 10549 Meadow Glen Way East.

One home closed escrow in Hidden Meadows out of the 17 that closed in the Zip Code – at 10541 Meadow Glen Way East, and it closed at $525,000.

So, the market continues to move along better than one might think, but we still face a HUGE foreclosure rate in 2010 and we do not know the impact that might cause. The BEST we can hope for is that there is a combination cadre of First-Time Home Buyers and Investors who can meet the inventory.

Interest rates cannot continue to remain low, despite Administration wishes, simply because the general economy will eventually recover as it always does, with or without “Stimulus.” Most of the stimulus money has yet to be spent, and by the time it is scheduled it will no longer be necessary.

If you need to sell a home, sell it. If you need to buy a home, buy it. There will be little variation in this market for years – a little up, a little down.

I can’t time the market and neither can you, so do what you must do without angst.

Angst does not help change the market.

On a personal note, I had clients buy a $735,000 home this past week. I am turning more and more of my work over to my son, who has owned Dolphin Realty for more than a decade – long before I joined it. As soon as his children are out of Poway schools, he will move to the Meadows.

I am not retiring, just sharing my future listings and sales, so as to conserve my strength.

My son’s name is Alan, the same as mine but with different spelling so as to have some differentiation. For those who know me, he shares exactly my moral and political views, but he has more experience in real estate than do I, and he has a 20 point higher IQ.

He is a GREAT Realtor, and already has Property Management homes in Hidden Meadows.

Analysis Sept 12

I regret that my lists have not been available, but in the two intervening weeks I had open heart surgery.

I’m back.

In the past two weeks there have been five new listings:

28327 Faircrest Way, $337,330, and 2135 s.f.

9943 Sage Hill, $349,000, and 1778 s.f

28333 Glenmeade Way, $369,000, and 1590 s.f.

9510 Sage Hill Way, $889,000-$969,000, 4,843 s.f.

10382 Vista Montanoso $1,950,000, and 5083 s.f.

Two homes went into Pending:

28027 Sage Hill Way, which went into Pending at $419,000-$469,000

And

28019 Glenmeade Way, which went into Pending at $519,000 –$569,000

And five homes closed escrow:

9635 Meadow Mesa which closed at $400,000

28683 Mountain Meadow Rd. at $483,175

10541 Meadow Glen Way East, at $525,000

9610 Indian Creek at $580,000

27434 Mountain Meadow Rd at $670,000

All in all a productive two week market, with movement at the higher levels.

We are not out of the woods.

2010 will give us more “foreclosures” and we do not know of the Lender response at renegotiating loans, or if there are still investor who will take those off the market. This uncertainty will continue to roil the market for several years, particularly when you consider the unemployment situation which continues to grow.

The market is stable – and that is about the best that can be said of it.

SORRY

I JUST HAD A 5-WAY HEART BYPASS AND WILL JOIN YOU AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

APH

Cognitive Disconnect

When I am going day and night looking for the right home for a client, there is little time to keep up this Blog, and I apologize. Just look at it this way: I am learning the Market better so I can communicate it to you.

I am looking for a specific home – 3,000 to 4,000 s.f., gated, view, pool, preferably newer. I know my Buyers well having represented them successfully before – twice – and they are willing to spend money but they are excellent business people and will not knowingly leave a dollar on the table.

You might think that would be a snap.

Wrong!

As in any level of sales, the way to get a “deal” is to find someone just short of a short-sale, and that is fairly easy to do in a neighborhood but when you are looking across many zip codes it is hard to divine. Most wealthy people can keep up appearances until the very day they can no longer do so. Wealthy people degrade catastrophically – they do not degrade incrementally.

So, how do you know if a home is “flexible” in price? The Realtor representing the Seller should be able to give you clues – IF they know, and IF they have been authorized to convey those clues.

My clients have given me their specifications. I have seen perhaps 15 homes in Valley Center, Hidden Meadows, Bonsal. And Fallbrook. I have selected five finalists, and two or three “alternates.”

I’ll say it again. It is amazing how few people at the $1 million mark have no sense of the market. I am certain their Realtor has told them, but their perception is that the market will not impact their home.

Cognitive Disconnect.

MLS Aug 21 Update

There were 17 Pendings in the Zip Code, but none in the Meadows.

(Do you see a trend here?)

Yes, there were 13 homes that closed escrow, but none were in the Meadows.

There is a reason. Our inventory has been reduced through sales. Our current inventory is very low.

So much so that I have a Sold Gold Buyer, looking for a single-level Luxury home for $700,000 — $1,300,000 in Hidden Meadows/Valley Center/Bonsal/Fallbrook, with views/pool and built after 2003.

My Buyer will buy this next weekend and close in 30 days.

You might think this is an easy order.

It is not, but if you have any suggestions…

MLS Update and Analysis Aug. 19

In the past 72 hours there has been zero activity in The Meadows: No listings, no Pendings, no closings.

There is no Realtor Caravan tomorrow. There are five total new listings since our last Caravan, but getting three homes at one time ready for the “Thundering Herd” of Realtors to see is always a problem.

Sellers are unnecessarily concerned. Realtors don’t look at unmade beds – they are professional and see traffic flow, cottage cheese ceilings, square footage, age of appliances, granite v tile, and general condition. Realtors look for what the Buyers want: White, light and bright.

Realtors want the beds made when they show Buyers, but they don’t much care when they are doing the previewing except as a Red Flag that things might not be ready when the Realtor has the Buyer with them.

One of the major qualities that Realtors want is accessibility. They want the home available when their Buyer is available.

Realtors are lazy. They want to see homes when they want to see them. If you make it hard to get in – well, there are lots of competing homes to be shown so if you want to make things hard for Realtors to see your home they won’t show it!

Making it hard for the Realtors Caravan is NOT a good idea. It is the wrong step to start off with Realtors unless your home is being tented or painted!

General Information

Because this Blog is read by many residents in the Meadows, I sometimes place on it information that is not real estate, but is rather of interest to the residents of the Meadows.

I have written that I am preparing several historical photo albums and diary book of WWII for a separate website. The scanning and preparation of these books take a lot of effort, but if you have an extra few minutes I am putting them on my personal website for testing.

Two books are up there already – one called “World War II” and one called “Four Soldiers.”

World War II is a text and photo diary of Marvin Popkin’s enlistment and subsequent travels through bombed Britain.

Four Soldiers is a historical documentation of the Battle for Europe – Normandy until the German surrender. It is the compilation of the photos of four soldiers: A professional American photographer; two American infantry soldiers who were also amateur photographers; and one German Ph.D who enlisted in the German Army as a Private and was killed on the Russian front. His amateur photographs were subsequently discovered in the burned out German home of his father.

Caution: Some of the photographs in Four Soldiers are of Tekla and Dachau Concentration Camp, and they are shocking.

These two books contain photos never before seen. The professional photographer was a member of the Movie Picture Company and took the photos of the concentration camps with a still camera. While the Army requested his movies, they never requested his still photos and they are available here for the first time. I will soon have a separate website for these photos — this is a temporary test, to check the downloading time and viewing quality.

The books are in pdf format, and they are very large files, so they load slowly. Be patient.

The link is http://www.allenhemphill.com/world_war_two.htm

Or just go to my website www.allenhemphill.com and click on the button on the left that says “World War II.”

MLS Update

There were no new listings in the Meadows over the weekend, and no homes went into Pending.

One home sold – 28778 Welcome, which sold for $570, 000. 2,878 square feet, on 2.3 acres.

It was listed less than six months ago for $999,000. It was a Short Sale, and demonstrates, once again that the housing problem locally is in the Executive/Luxury market. The few homes in that market that are selling in that market set terrible “comps” for any homes that sell regularly. That depresses the entire Executive/Luxury market.