February 7 Update

One home at Meadow Mesa dr. which was listed at $444,900 went into Pending.

One home at 28316 Glenmeade Closed escrow at $619,000.

The new listings were :

Price                  Address                                    Est SF Beds Bath Stry Yr Blt    #Ac       Mkt Time

365,000 10723 Meadow Glen Way East     1754      3          2       1       1978     0.24       4

995,000 28681 Sandhurst Wy                          3767     3          3        1       1992    8.08        5

Caravan 4 January

The Caravan this week was run by Linda in our office, and it was a pretty good Caravan because she collected some back listings that were left off previous Caravans for various reasons.

It happens once in awhile that people want extra time to prepare their homes before Caravan, and by the time the real estate office gets around to having a Caravan it has been so long since the listing that it has been forgotten as a “new listing.’

Fortunately, Linda tracks such things (she is well organized), so she has recovered some of those and added the newly added homes.

Consequently, we may have several Caravans this month, but we can also expect rain this month.

There were some interesting homes this past Thursday, but the two on Sandhurst were probably the best, although I like the home on Grassy Way for its location and the one on Meadow Glen Way East was the best priced.

ADDRESS	BDRM		BTH		SQ FT		YEAR		PRICE		$ per SQ FT		DOM
28021 Grassy Wy		3		2		1766		1978		$435,000		$246		85
10723 Meadow Glen Way E		3		2		1754		1978		$365,000		$208		1
28756 Faircrest Way		5		3		2916		1978		$595,000		$204		92
28458 Sandhurst Way		3		3		2328		2001		$495,000		$213		4
28750 Sandhurst Way		5		5		4400		2005		$1,789,000		$407		50

Week Ending 1 January

Once again we have a week in which there were more homes coming on the market than going off the market – a big change from the past many months, and not a good sign particularly but fairly normal for this time of year. If that continues after March – we will be in trouble.

We had 19 new listings in the Zip Code, and 14 homes went into Pending. Thirteen homes went into the SOLD (final) list.

The Meadows has two new listings:

Price Address Est SF Beds Bath Story Yr Blt #Ac Mkt Time $/SqFt

665,000 26064 Mesa Rock Road 2665 3 4 1 2002 1.77 3 250

749,000 9829 N North View Court Ct 3184 3 4 1 1997 5.45 1 235

Two Meadows homes went into Pending: One at 26855 Cougar pass and one at 29059 Meadow Glen Way West.

No homes in the Meadows closed escrow this past week.

Our office is in charge of Realtors Caravan this next month, and Linda in our office is working on this next Thursday. I suspect we can put at least three together, possibly four, and generally we have one Caravan a month these days.

My guess is that we may have two this month.

The press continues to stress the rise in home prices, but that is a suspect statistic caused by the sales of SLIGHTLY more homes of SLIGHTLY higher prices. That certainly does not mean a particular home is worth more this month than last.

Additionally, the top third of home in price, are still not participating in the housing “recovery.”

Generally, the recovery is at the bottom end – the investment/rental market, there is stability in the middle third, and stagnation in the upper end.

Hidden Meadows is in the stable to stagnant market – still awaiting a major movement.

Analysis 24 January 2010

 I suspect that this past week may be the harbinger of things to come – more Listings than Sales in the Zip Code.

In the past seven days, there were 27 new listings, and 10 homes went into Pending. Ten more from many weeks past also closed escrow, but they may have been in escrow for many months so it is the Listings and Pendings that capture my mind in a set time.

Now, I further suspect that some of those 27 were just previously listed homes that were taken off the market for the Holidays, but still 27-10 is a “fur piece” from what has been the “new norm” for the past several months when we had virtual equality between Listings and Pendings.

With more than three million homes scheduled to go into Foreclosure this year, we may see many weeks like this. We can only hope for a continuation of reluctance on the part of lenders to flood the market – flooding the market is NOT in their enlightened self-interest – and we can also hope for a good sales market.

Counting on smart money management from lenders is asking for what is not, and never has been. Guess we should just trust to luck – that actually has more promise.

In The Meadows there were two new Listings;

Price $     Address                             Est SF     Beds Bath Story Yr Blt     #Ac     Markt Time

289,800 26855 COUGAR PASS ROAD 864     2         1         2     1955     7.54         5

699,900 10136 Boulder Knolls Dr.     2500         3         3         1     2000     1.18         4

No Meadows homes went into Pending or Closed escrow this past week.

There was no Realtor Caravan this past week, but perhaps there will be one on Thursday if the weather holds.

Analysis

So, how is the Meadows market?

It is about normal, with the exception that we have too many short sales and too many foreclosures – and the non-distressed homes have a bit of problem competing.

If they want to sell, they must compete.

If there is any solace for Buyers and Sellers, it is that distressed properties carry with their low prices the hassle of dealing with banks — and that makes non-distressed properties competitive if they are priced anywhere near the distressed properties.

There are a lot of homes that are not priced competitively, but that does not necessarily mean that the homes will not sell at a competitive price.

 ome Sellers just need an offer to get them off the dime. Even a low offer is a reality check for those who are badly overpriced, and we have some homes that are badly overpriced.

Tomorrow I’ll run the list of homes available.

November 14 Update

First, let me apologize for having been off this Blog for several months while I recovered from a five-way heart by-pass. It will take some time for my readership to return, and I understand that.

There were two new listings in the Meadows this past week. One oat 9642 Indian Creek, a 4/3 of 3,000 s.f. and at a price of $495,000. The other is at 28021 Grassy Way, a 3/2 of 1,766 s.f. for $570,000.

Just looking at the numbers, Grassy Way must be on an oil well, or a gold mine.

One home went into Pending…10546 Aspen Glen.

Two homes in the Meadows closed escrow – 28333 Glenmeade Way, 1,590 s.f.,  which closed at $350,000, and 9510 Sage Hill Way which closed at $725,000. The Sage Hill property closed at a high sales number because it had a pool, was 4,800+ s.f. and was on an especially large lot.

Update, Sept. 19

Although I have sufficient strength to do this once a week, I have been unable to maintain my daily political and real estate daily blogs, which are only spasmodic at best.

This past week, there were 29 new listings in Zip Code 92026, of which two were in Hidden Meadows, one of which did not turn up in the list on the obverse for reasons best known to the gnomes who maintain the data base. It is on High Vista, 2,686 s.f.,  3/3 on 1.1 acres for $539,000.

That is an astounding price for ANYTHING on High Vista.

The other one is:

Price 649,000, 10451 PINION TRAIL, s.f.3266, BR4, BA3, Story1, Built2004, Acres0.38, Mkt. Time3, $/s.f.199

In the past week, two Meadows homes went into “Pending” of the 21 in the Zip Code, including one at 9943 Sage Hill and one at 10549 Meadow Glen Way East.

One home closed escrow in Hidden Meadows out of the 17 that closed in the Zip Code – at 10541 Meadow Glen Way East, and it closed at $525,000.

So, the market continues to move along better than one might think, but we still face a HUGE foreclosure rate in 2010 and we do not know the impact that might cause. The BEST we can hope for is that there is a combination cadre of First-Time Home Buyers and Investors who can meet the inventory.

Interest rates cannot continue to remain low, despite Administration wishes, simply because the general economy will eventually recover as it always does, with or without “Stimulus.” Most of the stimulus money has yet to be spent, and by the time it is scheduled it will no longer be necessary.

If you need to sell a home, sell it. If you need to buy a home, buy it. There will be little variation in this market for years – a little up, a little down.

I can’t time the market and neither can you, so do what you must do without angst.

Angst does not help change the market.

On a personal note, I had clients buy a $735,000 home this past week. I am turning more and more of my work over to my son, who has owned Dolphin Realty for more than a decade – long before I joined it. As soon as his children are out of Poway schools, he will move to the Meadows.

I am not retiring, just sharing my future listings and sales, so as to conserve my strength.

My son’s name is Alan, the same as mine but with different spelling so as to have some differentiation. For those who know me, he shares exactly my moral and political views, but he has more experience in real estate than do I, and he has a 20 point higher IQ.

He is a GREAT Realtor, and already has Property Management homes in Hidden Meadows.

Analysis Sept 12

I regret that my lists have not been available, but in the two intervening weeks I had open heart surgery.

I’m back.

In the past two weeks there have been five new listings:

28327 Faircrest Way, $337,330, and 2135 s.f.

9943 Sage Hill, $349,000, and 1778 s.f

28333 Glenmeade Way, $369,000, and 1590 s.f.

9510 Sage Hill Way, $889,000-$969,000, 4,843 s.f.

10382 Vista Montanoso $1,950,000, and 5083 s.f.

Two homes went into Pending:

28027 Sage Hill Way, which went into Pending at $419,000-$469,000

And

28019 Glenmeade Way, which went into Pending at $519,000 –$569,000

And five homes closed escrow:

9635 Meadow Mesa which closed at $400,000

28683 Mountain Meadow Rd. at $483,175

10541 Meadow Glen Way East, at $525,000

9610 Indian Creek at $580,000

27434 Mountain Meadow Rd at $670,000

All in all a productive two week market, with movement at the higher levels.

We are not out of the woods.

2010 will give us more “foreclosures” and we do not know of the Lender response at renegotiating loans, or if there are still investor who will take those off the market. This uncertainty will continue to roil the market for several years, particularly when you consider the unemployment situation which continues to grow.

The market is stable – and that is about the best that can be said of it.

SORRY

I JUST HAD A 5-WAY HEART BYPASS AND WILL JOIN YOU AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

APH

Cognitive Disconnect

When I am going day and night looking for the right home for a client, there is little time to keep up this Blog, and I apologize. Just look at it this way: I am learning the Market better so I can communicate it to you.

I am looking for a specific home – 3,000 to 4,000 s.f., gated, view, pool, preferably newer. I know my Buyers well having represented them successfully before – twice – and they are willing to spend money but they are excellent business people and will not knowingly leave a dollar on the table.

You might think that would be a snap.

Wrong!

As in any level of sales, the way to get a “deal” is to find someone just short of a short-sale, and that is fairly easy to do in a neighborhood but when you are looking across many zip codes it is hard to divine. Most wealthy people can keep up appearances until the very day they can no longer do so. Wealthy people degrade catastrophically – they do not degrade incrementally.

So, how do you know if a home is “flexible” in price? The Realtor representing the Seller should be able to give you clues – IF they know, and IF they have been authorized to convey those clues.

My clients have given me their specifications. I have seen perhaps 15 homes in Valley Center, Hidden Meadows, Bonsal. And Fallbrook. I have selected five finalists, and two or three “alternates.”

I’ll say it again. It is amazing how few people at the $1 million mark have no sense of the market. I am certain their Realtor has told them, but their perception is that the market will not impact their home.

Cognitive Disconnect.