October 13 MLS Update

Is everyone on holiday? There was absolutely nothing going on in the Meadows in the past 24 hours, and in fact the activity in the entire Zip Code was minimal.

 

There were a whole two new listings in the whole Zip Code, four price changes, two Pendings, and one closing.

 

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

 

Perhaps everyone was buying up the stock market today!

Market Analysis and Proposal

Readers know that I try to look a bit more distant than just the Meadows, and for a good reason.

 

The Meadows is an island of tranquility, and it is also an island market. It simply does not behave with the rest of the market – but it is dependent upon the rest of the market.

 

For many years, as an example, the Meadows has started its Spring sale about 30 days after Rancho Bernardo comes out of the Winter doldrums, but that is in “normal” times and these are not “normal” times.

 

So, will Rancho Bernardo continue to be our canary in the mine? Logic says yes, but markets do not operate on logic – they is an emotional component. There is little emotion in owning stock, but homes – certainly, and stock has no intrinsic value, while homes do.

 

The investment market has already turned around, but the “normal” market – generally from $350,000 to $850,000 – requires that someone first buy their “normal” home before they can buy a home in the Meadows.

 

So the “normal” market is a bootstrap operation. Investment landlords are buying investment property with funds they have taken from a stock market or money market account. Wealthy people always have discretionary money.

 

Those in the middle must sell before they can buy. That negatively impacts the Meadows.

 

But, the impetus for the Meadows is not necessarily the local market in Escondido, San Marcos, Vista, or even Temecula. It is also Minneapolis, and Buffalo, and….

 

If THOSE markets turn around before Southern California does, it will help us.

 

Our problem is how to reach them, and the answer is the internet – and we would need a “Chamber of Commerce” website to do that. Each of us has a website.

 

I intend to propose just that. I’ll even design the website (as some of you know, I spent 14 years and 6,000 classroom hours as a Core Adjunct Professor of Computer Science at a local university), but someone not in real estate needs to run it and moderate it .

 

I’ll keep you informed.