MLS Update and Analysis

I don’t think that there is a strike on the part of real estate writers to avoid their favorite subject, but they apparently are taking a summer vacation

They have stopped opining. They are probably sanguine with the market. It seems fairly simple – the lower part of the market is stable and increasing, even “hot,” and the upper market is increasing in sales and diminishing in price.

Now, Ii am a bit of a cynic. There is a moratorium on foreclosures, as if one was needed. Note to the Governor: BANKS DON’T WANT TO FORECLOSE BECAUSE IT FLOODS THE MARKET AND DRIVES DOWN THE VALUE OF THEIR CURRENT INVENTORY!

Oh well. And if you think it’s bad to try to sell a home now, there are provisions in the recently passed (but unread)  Cap and Trade Bill that will establish energy standards that will be required before you can sell your home! That provision may not survive the Senate because, unlike the House, the Senate will have the time to actually READ the bill! They probably wont, but they have time.

There are other onerous provisions as well, but that one caught my eye because it has always been the law that in the State of California one need not update their homes to meet standards passed since it was built, with certain exceptions like strapping waterheaters.

Just hope that the Senate has more sense – but if you are counting on politicians to protect you…well…

In the past 72 hours, the numbers were good in the Zip Code: Four new listings, 12 Pendings!

How’s them apples!

One home in the Meadows went into Pending, and that was on Meadow Mesa, at a list price of $698,000. That is good news – that a relatively high priced home (in this market) went into pending. How good it really is depends on the final sales price, but still…

Seven homes closed in the Zip Code but none were in the Meadows.

The Week In Review

There were 20 new listings in the Zip Code, but only one from The Meadows – a HUGE buy on Cavalier Court. Cavalier Court is a short sale and more than 4,500 s.f. on 2.16 acres for $539,000. That might be a steal! Executive and Luxury level homes at prices this low are jumping off the market in less than a week!

There were 21 homes in the Zip Code that went into Pending, and four of them were in The Meadows. That is a high sales week for any market, at any time of year.

A home on Fallen Tree closed escrow at $309,900. That was the only closing in the Meadows, of the nine that closed in the Zip Code this past week.

The sales prices are low – but there are a large number of sales taking place.

I can now announce that I have finished the website for the Meadows Homes Association. It is live and running normally. I did it and will maintain it as a volunteer, because this community runs on volunteer work The website is http://www.themeadowshomesassociation.org, and it has the By-laws of the association, architectural guidelines, and the CC&Rs, as well as contact information for the association. The website also has the Agenda for the upcoming Board Meetings and the Minutes for the previous Board Meeting.

One of the useful e-mail alerts available in the Meadows is Tom Francl’s newsletter. It provides news like lost dogs, vandalism, and the occasional crime. It also alerts Meadows residents as to planned events. This is a real benefit to the community, and if you are interested please send him an e-mail and subscribe. Subscribe at: dynamite@pacbell.net

The monthly newspaper, The Meadowlark, is a terrific newspaper, edited by Sally Langpap a talented and hard-working Editor. It takes a HUGE amount of volunteer work to put this newspaper out, and it is worth reading – every issue. It is mailed to every resident in The Meadows by the Association of Resident Owners (ARO) whether people are members of ARO or not. But at $20 a year, EVERYONE should be a member!

The e-mails from Tom fill in where there is “Breaking News” that cannot await the next edition of a monthly newspaper. And, of course my Real Estate blog gives daily information on items related to living in The Meadows, but concentrating on real estate matters. If I do not cover information you need, send me an e-mail at allen@allenhemphill.com

MLS Update

There is a new listing in the Meadows, on Cavalier Court – a short sale. More than 4,500 s.f. on 2.16 acres for $539,000. That might be a steal!

Executive and Luxury level homes at prices this low are jumping off the market in less than a week!

Two homes went into Pending – the home on Red Stone ($359,000) and the one on Turner Heights ($456,192).

I can now announce that I have finished the website for the Meadows Homes Association. It is live and running normally. I did it and will maintain it as a volunteer. The website is www.themeadowshomesassociation.org, and it has the By-laws of the association, architectural guidelines, and the CC&Rs, as well as contact information for the association. It also has the Agenda for the upcoming Board Meetings and the Minutes for the previous Board Meeting.

More on Retirement Facilities

My wife and I continue to help a friend with her selection of a retirement home. Although she is physically well she has had several bouts with cancer, and a minor stroke has robbed her of some cognitive ability.

Jean and I have had experience with helping others, we find there are more alternatives than ever.

This time we visited the Pacific Regent La Jolla, a luxury high-rise with what we found were very reasonable rates.

The Regent has only “independent living” – no medical assistance of any kind, although some residents employ their own assistant.

The facilities were first-rate. The HOA fees were about $2,000 a month for one person, $2,400 for two. Meals are extra and bought in blocks of 5, 15, or 30. A block of 30 costs $390.

There is a buy-in, but it is most reasonable, and recently reduced to reflect the real estate market. There appear to be perhaps 20 floors, and the higher the floors the higher the buy-in because the better the view. We saw three, two-bedroom condos with different buy-ins. The first was $395,000.

The other two offered interesting buy-in options. With a zero life estate, which basically means you have no real estate interest in the condo and upon the death the condo reverts to the Regent, one was $115, 000 and one was $135,000. Both of those condos also offered a 50% fee simple holding of $135,000 and $185,000 which basically means that upon vacancy the owners estate can make 50% of the new value received upon a new sale.

That leaves interested parties with a lot of options. My only editorial comment is that I could live in any of the condos I saw, and I think Jean and I could be happy at the Regent. Whether it fits our friend is strictly up to her. All of the ‘normal” condos are about 1,200 s.f. – although there are a few “double condos.”

An interesting situation.

MLS Update and Caravan

In the past 72 hours there has been ZERO activity in The Meadows. No listings, no Pendings, no Closings.

That does not help me in designing the Thursday Realtors Caravan. I have three prospects, and that is the minimum but if I call for a Caravan there is the possibility that one will cancel because of illness, or something – and having arranged for perhaps 10 local Realtors and a couple of outside Realtors, I would hate to cancel at the last second.

I will schedule anyway, and hope for a fourth new listing in the next 48 hours to make the Caravan a safe bet. Right now it is just a bet.

    June 25 Caravan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  # StreetName

 ListPrice

SqFt

$/s.f

BR

BA

Acres

Built

Story

  10155 Sage Hill Way  $       695,000

4692

148

4

3.5

0.26

1974

2

  10231 High Mountain Dr  $    1,350,000

3687

366

3

3.5

1.04

1996

1

  10585 Aspen Glen  $       444,900

3243

137

5

3

 

2004

2

Communications in The Meadows

One of the useful e-mail alerts available in the Meadows is Tom Francl’s newsletters. It provides news like lost dogs, vandalism, and the occasional crime. It also alerts Meadows residents as to planned events. This is a real benefit to the community, and if you are interested please send him an e-mail and subscribe. Subscribe at: dynamite@pacbell.net

The monthly newspaper, The Meadowlark, is a terrific newspaper, edited by Sally Langpap a talented and hard-working Editor. It takes a HUGE amount of volunteer work to put this newspaper out, and it is worth reading – every issue. It is mailed to every resident in The Meadows by the Association of Resident Owners (ARO) whether they are members or not.

The e-mails from Tom fill in where there is “Breaking News” that cannot await the next edition of a monthly newspaper.

This is a terrific combination. At one point I had a section of my HUGE website dedicated to an on-line newspaper which I intended to publish for The Meadows, but it was premature and actually a Blog would be a better modern design.

Pressure on Higher Priced Homes

The San Diego Union (June 20) confirms what I wrote last week – that higher priced home prices are now being thrashed by short-sales and foreclosures. (http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jun/20/pricey-neighborhoods-seeing-more-defaults/?uniontrib)

“But in certain expensive areas, there were record levels of defaults.

Point Loma, Solana Beach and Rancho Santa Fe and other expensive areas reported numbers several times the level seen a year ago, a sign that the trend may continue upward.”

That is certainly our problem. I am working with two high-priced homes ($1,395,000 and $2,900,000) and the values of those homes – already diminished because of the general market – are now further depressed by the $540,000 sale of the luxury home on Mountain Meadow (that was $1,000,000+), and the $775,000 home on Cerveza Baja (that was previously $1,400,000.)

Now it can be argued that the market is simply reflecting a rational delta between the lower, middle and upper priced home markets, and that is true but it does not help high-priced homes, it simply spreads the pain still further. Spreading the pain to the wealthy does not diminish the pain for the less wealthy.

Continues the SD Union, “I think we will see more pain and more foreclosures in the upper end,” said San Diego real estate broker Gary Kent. “Some neighborhoods like La Jolla and Del Mar were almost unaffected by foreclosures, but now there will be some effect.”

This simply reflects the reality of the general economy. Many of the middle and upper-middle homeowners are managers and owners of businesses that are in serious difficulty as the economy slows. If the owner/manager cannot save their business, they can’t save their homes.

If there is a silver lining on this dark cloud, it is that it will generate sales in the mid and upper ranges – and that will RAISE the median prices. Raising median prices increases Buyer confidence in the housing market. Yes, that is a psychological and not an actual benefit, but confidence drives the market.