June 20 Weekly Analysis

The numbers for the Zip Code again look good for the past week.

It is obvious from the list of homes available in the Meadows. Notice that we do not even have a full page, whereas just a few weeks ago we went over to this page – and substantially.

This past week we had 19 new listings in the Zip Code, 23 homes went into Pending, and 11 homes closed escrow. Those are the kinds of numbers that decrease inventories, just as has been demonstrated with only 29 homes available today in Hidden Meadows.

The home we had on Caravan on Oak Ranch was one that went off the market last week – it was on the market just 8 days.

I am running the Meadows Realtors Caravan this month, and it is interesting. We have sufficient new listings every week to have a caravan every week, but people often list their homes prematurely and they are really not quite ready. We will have a new Realtors Caravan this next week. I am particularly interested in seeing the home at the corner of High Mountain and High Vista.

The market appears to be changing. This is just an anecdote to be sure but it is instructive. My son (who incidentally has owned Dolphin Realty for more than a decade), just sold a home in Lakeside BEFORE it was listed. He had 10 offers in one day of Open Houses, and sold the home for more than the list price. It closes in 21 days, and sold for $360,000: Because our agency has Property Management, and therefore we have a stable of painters, carpenters, plumbers, cabinetmakers, tile setters, etc. They are used usually for maintenance for the many homes we have in management, but now we are using them to rehab homes prior to resale.

My son tells me that there are a lot of “First Time” Buyers in the market today, and they have joined with investors in buying low-priced homes – but the investors are primarily into short-sale and foreclosures while First Time home buyers want turn-key homes at prices almost competitive prices to short sale and foreclosures.

The Meadows is just a bit too upscale to participate in the frenzy that is going on in those markets, but when a good value comes on in The Meadows it jumps off the market quickly. In the past two weeks we have had sales in three days, eight days, and again, eight days. Those sales, and others have helped reduce our Meadows inventory – and our current inventory is about what we would historically see over a long period of time during a “normal” market.

Prices at the low end appear to have solidified in The Meadows, but recent sales have put pressure on high end properties. When there is one short sale or foreclosure at the high end, Appraisers can mark that off as an anomaly, but when several take place virtually simultaneously then it becomes “the market.” That then becomes a problem even when a high end home sells at a high price – Lenders simply use all of the distress sales to determine the loan.

In the case of the home my son rehabbed in Lakeside, he told potential Buyers that the home was NOT going to comp at the sales price and that all Buyers would have to bring sufficient cash to make up the difference, if they really wanted it. They did – lots of them: Enough to sell the home for more than the asking price.

This situation may not last. It may be a situation that cannot transfer to The Meadows, but sales ANYWHERE in San Diego County provide eventual Buyers for The Meadows. It is all a question of time.