Caravan Report

The Caravan was, as usual, “instructive.”

The first home was the luxury home on Engelmann Oak – a beautiful home of 4,142 square feet on 1.14 acres, built in 2000. Stunning home, and well worth the price. Whether it will pass bank muster for a loan at that price is the question – and no one has an answer. Banks are really flaky these days.

The second home on Lake Meadow Lane is 2,543 square feet and is listed at $495,000. It has a lot of updating to do – it still has popcorn, tile…etc.

I like the home at 10541 Meadow Glen Way. It is 2,595 square feet, white, light and bright – for $499,000 — $550,000. It is right on the golf course and, built in 2003 it is already upgraded. This one will sell quickly.

Jean and I passed on the home on Pinion Trail because we had another appointment.

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Realtor Caravan Tomorrow

This is the list of homes to be seen on Caravan tomorrow.

Address

Price

Acres/

Year built

BR/Bath

SF

1

28205 Engelmann Oak Trl

(rural acreage)

$1.100,000 1.14 acres

YB= 2000

3+1/3.5

4,142

2

10244 Lake Meadow Lane

(TMHA)

$495,000 .43 acres

YB=1978

3/2.5

2,543

3

10541 MGWE

(TMHA)

$499,000 – $550,000 .24 acres

YB=2003

3/2.5

2,595

4

10377 Pinion Trail

(The Summit)

$569,000 .3284 acres

YB=2004

5/4.5

3,920

Analysis July 28

Everyone seems to agree (WSJ and Case-Shiller) that the sales are up and that the lower prices are decelerating.

Further proof that neighborhoods rule! While the general national market may well fit the template, Zip Code 92026, and more importantly Hidden meadows has its own Circadian rhythm. That rhythm says lower-priced models are increasing in prices, and executive and luxury homes are decreasing in price.

But the future is REALLY cloudy. I’ll admit I don’t have much more than just a clue, because the economy has so many holes that we must worry about how long there will be a pool of Buyers to rescue this market.

I have no clue. Unemployment continues to increase. Only 8% of the stimulus money has been spent. The nation’s deficit is increasing exponentially and Cap and Trade and Nationalized Health Care are looming.

How does all of this play out?

Stay tuned.

MLS Update July 27

Over the weekend there was a new home listed on Lake Meadow at 10244 Lake Meadow, 2,543 s.f., for $495,000.

We do have a scheduled Realtors Caravan on Thursday, so I hope we see it then.

There was no other activity in The Meadows in the past 72 hours.

Just a reminder that I designed and maintain the new Association website at http://www.themeadowshomesassociation.org

Right now, the CC&Rs and By-Laws are there, along with the Minutes of Board Meetings and Agenda.

Analysis

The Wall Street Journal today says that existing home sales are up across the country, and their economists now say that the home resale market is now no longer the weakest part of the economy.

But saying that the national physical health of Americans is improving does not mean that you, specifically are healthy.

Home sales to the individual are neighborhood specific.

Hidden Meadows homes are selling well, and that is good. The inventory is low and for Sellers that is good, but the hidden inventory is high and for Buyers that is good. The prices are low, and that is good for Buyers and bad for Sellers. The general economy is bad and getting worse, which is good for retirees and people in certain employment sectors, and bad for marginally employed and those in certain employment sectors where use can be delayed or avoided.

Home sales are really strong where first-time home buyers and investors are active. GENERALLY, investors gravitate toward foreclosures and short-sales, while first-time homebuyers gravitate toward low-priced turn-key sales.

There are a huge number of back-loaded foreclosures still scheduled to flood the market, and prices will reflect the pool of investors still able to take them off as soon as they hit the market. We know the pool of coming foreclosures. We do not know the pool of available Buyers.

Only individual Buyers and individual Sellers are capable of sorting out their specific situation.

MLS Update July 22

My son, who owns Dolphin Realty, is working flat out every day, long hours in Rancho Bernardo. Obviously, the market is much better in Rancho Bernardo than it is in Hidden Meadows, and in years past its upturn in RB presages an upturn in The Meadows.

That may not be the case this year for several reasons, not the least of which is the paucity lower-priced listings available in The Meadows.

There have been two new listings in the Meadows, one on 10541 Meadow Glen Way East, 2,595 square feet for $499,000 — $550,000; and a home at 10377 Pinion Trail, 3,920 s.f for $569,000. There were 14 total new listings in the Zip Code.

There were 20 homes in the Zip Code that went into Pending, and one of them was on Indian Creek. 9610 Indian Creek, 3,222 square feet went into Pending  at a list price of $599,000 — $629,000.

Three homes closed escrow during the past five days in The Meadows. THAT IS AN ACTIVE MARKET! A home on Pinion Trail (3,266) sold for $578,500. A home on Mountain Meadows Road (3,677 s.f.) sold for $577,000. A home on Galatea (2,297 s.f.) closed at $485,000. That was three of 13 homes that closed in the Zip Code.

Hmmmm. Perhaps the market has changed! Let’s hope it is not a “W” market.

The Week In Review

Breaking News: The Executive Home on Canyon Country Lane, already a good buy, has been reduced to $799,000. That is a nice, gated single-story home, with a view and a guest house. Excellent home.

If all you looked at was the numbers, you might think the market was slowing – the Zip Code had 23 new listings and only 12 homes went into Pending.

That seems like too few Pending compared to recent ratios – but when you understand that the inventory is low, and still dropping, then Pendings will continue to be slow. There just isn’t a lot of inventory to choose from – actually there is but if Buyers are not dealing with local Realtors you may not find them. They are hidden. The local Realtors in this community – in ANY community – know the other homes that can be bought even those homes are not listed.

This was a good Realtors Caravan, any way you look at it. Nice houses, mostly good prices, great selection. There was not a “dog” in the bunch. Some homes were not my style, but they will be someone’s style, and all were ready for sale…well cleaned and immediately presentable. That is not always the case.

The $1,395,000 home on High Mountain was spectacular. The seller is a well-known local Interior Decorator (she did our home), and the home LOOKS like a professional decorator’s home. The separate guest house is a real plus, but I really think the location at the corner of High Mountain and High Vista is a major selling point.

The home on Meadows Glen Way East at $650,000 is beautiful, and the one on Meadow Glen Way East at $495,000 is an even better deal because it is right on the fairway of the golf course. Both MGWE homes are turn-key operations. The home on Glenmeade needs updating, but the home is beautiful and certainly livable during the updating. This home has terrific curb appeal. The Sage Hill listing is nice, but the floor plan does not flow for me. It does have a pool, which is either a plus or a minus depending upon your point of view.

One home closed escrow in the Zip Code and that was in the Meadows on Glenmeade, a 3/3 of 1,913 s.f. and it closed for $399,00. That was a nice home, and well worth the price. Although there are glowing and accurate accounts of rising median prices and lowering inventories, foreclosures also are increasing.

If that paints a confusing picture, there is a reason. The market is confusing to anyone who treats homes as investments. Those who treat homes as devices to keep the owner warm and dry in comfortable surroundings, find this market is a great deal less confusing.