Analysis

The Wall Street Journal today says that existing home sales are up across the country, and their economists now say that the home resale market is now no longer the weakest part of the economy.

But saying that the national physical health of Americans is improving does not mean that you, specifically are healthy.

Home sales to the individual are neighborhood specific.

Hidden Meadows homes are selling well, and that is good. The inventory is low and for Sellers that is good, but the hidden inventory is high and for Buyers that is good. The prices are low, and that is good for Buyers and bad for Sellers. The general economy is bad and getting worse, which is good for retirees and people in certain employment sectors, and bad for marginally employed and those in certain employment sectors where use can be delayed or avoided.

Home sales are really strong where first-time home buyers and investors are active. GENERALLY, investors gravitate toward foreclosures and short-sales, while first-time homebuyers gravitate toward low-priced turn-key sales.

There are a huge number of back-loaded foreclosures still scheduled to flood the market, and prices will reflect the pool of investors still able to take them off as soon as they hit the market. We know the pool of coming foreclosures. We do not know the pool of available Buyers.

Only individual Buyers and individual Sellers are capable of sorting out their specific situation.

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MLS Update July 22

My son, who owns Dolphin Realty, is working flat out every day, long hours in Rancho Bernardo. Obviously, the market is much better in Rancho Bernardo than it is in Hidden Meadows, and in years past its upturn in RB presages an upturn in The Meadows.

That may not be the case this year for several reasons, not the least of which is the paucity lower-priced listings available in The Meadows.

There have been two new listings in the Meadows, one on 10541 Meadow Glen Way East, 2,595 square feet for $499,000 — $550,000; and a home at 10377 Pinion Trail, 3,920 s.f for $569,000. There were 14 total new listings in the Zip Code.

There were 20 homes in the Zip Code that went into Pending, and one of them was on Indian Creek. 9610 Indian Creek, 3,222 square feet went into Pending  at a list price of $599,000 — $629,000.

Three homes closed escrow during the past five days in The Meadows. THAT IS AN ACTIVE MARKET! A home on Pinion Trail (3,266) sold for $578,500. A home on Mountain Meadows Road (3,677 s.f.) sold for $577,000. A home on Galatea (2,297 s.f.) closed at $485,000. That was three of 13 homes that closed in the Zip Code.

Hmmmm. Perhaps the market has changed! Let’s hope it is not a “W” market.