Keeping Perspective

One of the problems with doing any analysis is the variations on a theme of home prices (with apologies to Paganini), caused by blind analysts feeling different parts of the same elephant.

You intuitively know all this, but it is desirable to emphasize it.

One day we read Zillow, or Morgan-Stanley viewing the national market, the next day we read the voiceofsandiego.com analysis of San Diego County, and the next the North County Times view of North County.

Each is a correct analysis of the area for which they view, but none of them accurately reflect Hidden Meadows – although each impacts Hidden Meadows.

Just as the temperature of the water off some beaches is warmer or cooler than the ocean overall, neighborhood sales and prices are different from the national housing overall, but it is certainly influenced by that overall market and cannot get too far from the overall sales and prices without being brought back into some balance.

So, when I print information by different analysts wider markets, please keep that in mind.

Today, we view the analysis of North County as published by the North County Times, which is certainly more reflective of Hidden Meadows than a national, state or county analysis because it actually covers buyers and sellers who are direct competitors.

While we treasure Hidden Meadows as a very special place, buyers who are less informed are just as happy to buy a home in Escondido or San Marcos – but unlikely to consider San Carlos, and certainly not Chicago.

“North San Diego County house sales and the median price slipped in April compared with last year, when government incentives pumped up the market, according to transaction data and real estate agents.

The median house price in April dipped to $430,000, down 4.9 percent from March and 2.8 percent from the same month last year, according to a North County Times analysis of data from the San Diego County assessor. Sales slipped to 602, down 15 percent from March and down 20.8 percent from April 2010.”

http://www.nctimes.com/business/article_be7913fe-e735-569d-92d7-a8232fd57a1d.html

Advertisements