August 11, Weekly Analysis

August 11, Weekly Analysis

Two new listings this past week in The Meadows, and they are displayed with yellow highlight on the list.

Only one Meadows home went into Pending: 28042 Glenmeade Way, a 3/3 of 2,159 s.f. which had been listed at $474,999.

No homes Closed Escrow this week in Hidden Meadows.

Our inventory is stable again this week, but again weighted heavily in favor of the large lot properties, and again we have no listings under $425,000 as the lower-priced properties have sold.

The activity on the large lot properties is high, but the accepted offers are sparse. Most of the potential Buyers express the opinion that the large lot properties do not include many bargains, and bargains are what the current crop of buyers is looking for.

The lenders are reporting that nationally the rate of foreclosures has increased every month over the past three months, but that the rate of foreclosures is still less than the same period last year. Nevertheless, the shadow inventory of foreclosures is very high. The lenders are at least releasing their foreclosures at a sufficiently slow pace as to keep the prices stable.

There are too many unknowns in the overall economy to feel good about the real estate market, which historically returns after the economy picks up. Gas prices, drought in the center of the nation, and the teetering European economy (which represents 25% of our exports) all mitigate against a rapid economic return, and ultimately against a rapid real estate recovery.

We in Hidden Meadows had a great sales Summer, at least below $500,000, and now activity in the above $500,000 market shows the potential for life as well. The market below $500,000 has seen multiple offers appear in some sectors of North County, as investors have been very active in that market, and cash sales are not uncommon.

The Executive and Luxury market has seen a few expensive properties sell, but nothing approaching the activity of the lower-priced properties. The owners of Executive and Luxury homes have seen nothing like the traffic seen by the smaller lot properties. In the upper level an Open House seldom brings two or three potential buyers a day, and even offers made are much lower than the asking prices.

But traffic is still good, and offers continue to be made in the Executive and Luxury homes as potential buyers seek bargains.

August 5, Weekly Analysis

August 5, Weekly Analysis

Two new listings this week, and they are color coded with yellow on the list – although one was listed apparently 18 days ago and just showed up on the list.

Some people have asked if my listings were the ones in yellow, so this week I placed my listings color coded in green. Yellow has always denoted the homes appearing on the list for the first time.

One home went into Pending this past week (by our office): 28136 Glenmeade Way, a 3/3 of 3,048 s.f. which had been listed at $359,000 — $419,000.

One home closed escrow: 27253 Mountain Meadow Rd, a 3/3 of 3,100 s.f. (on 39.87 acres!) closed escrow at $1,800,000.

You will note that we still have very few listing that are not on large lots, because almost all of the smaller properties have gone into Pending or have Sold. The competition for those smaller homes on smaller lots has been the hallmark of the Summer months in The Meadows.

While we do not know the population of potential Buyers at any given moment, the Summer sales were spectacular in the $300,000 — $450,000 range. There is every reason to believe that there are still unfulfilled Buyers out there in that category when new homes are listed.

The traffic in the Executive and Luxury homes remains excellent, although sales are not anywhere near the level of the smaller homes on smaller lots. That makes economic sense, but still the larger homes on larger lots are virtually all of the remaining inventory.

While I do not normally cover the Condo properties in my list and my analysis, I do note that one of the Condos SOLD this past week at $102,000, and it appears the Condo prices in the Meadows are on the rise.

I might note that our homes have always been undervalued because most people do not know we are here, so there has historically been less competition for our homes. Recently, our homes have attracted a lot of Buyers because our homes were – and are – under priced.

We pay for the relative seclusion in our home values, and that has been a blessing and a curse, but it is something that our residents have always treasured – right up until the day comes to sell their homes. Nevertheless, the length of time most of our residents have lived here attests to the fact that they would never move unless circumstances force them to.

Our new residents will grow to appreciate the luxury we have enjoyed.

July 21, Weekly Analysis

July 21, Weekly Analysis

The single new listing in the Meadows this past week is highlighted on the list.

The surprising thing about the list is that (basically) all of the lower-priced homes have sold. This is not surprising because, and this is not just true in The Meadows, there are multiple offers on lower-priced homes in North County, if you define lower-priced as below $400,000. There are, at this moment, no homes listed under $425,000 – and THAT is NEWS! Good news!

Three homes went into Pending last week, and with only one new listing the list gets shorter. 27821 Dogwood Glen, a 4/3 of 3,020 s.f had been listed at $440,000; 28136 Glenmeade Way, a 3/3 of 3,048 s.f which had been listed at $369,000 — $459,000; and 27253 Mountain Meadow Road, a 3/4 if 3,100 s.f. (on 39+ acres) had been listed at $1,995,000.

FIVE homes closed escrow this past week: 28120 Glenmeade Way, a 2/3 of 1,932 s.f. SOLD for $278,000; 9728 Indian Creek, a 3/2 of 1,596 s.f sold at $335,900; 10494 Meadow Glen Way East, a 3/3 of 2,469 s.f. sold for $380,000; 28244 Faircrest Way, a 3/4 of 2,819 s.f. sold for $445,000; and 10541 Cerveza Dr., a 4/5 of 6,958 s.f. sold for $720,000.

One interesting fact about the homes that closed this past week is the shortness of the “Market Time.” The homes were on the market for 2 days, 16 days, 9 days, and 87 days respectively.

Pricing is EVERYTHING in this market. There are buyers out there but they are looking for and finding relative bargains. Short Sales and Foreclosures set the prices in every area, including The Meadows, and homes of the regular sales variety must compete with these distress sales.

Unfortunately, we have as many as another 700,000 new national Foreclosures in the pipeline for this year, so it is likely that these housing doldrums will continue for some time.

The GOOD News is that builders are starting to pull permits so they think they see a light at the end of the tunnel, but over the next 18 months there is at best, uncertainty, and a continued soft market.

And, in the smaller and lower priced homes, there is a current rush for well-priced or extremely attractive homes in the under $500,000 range throughout North County, with something seldom seen recently – multiple offers on well-priced homes.

There are buyers in the Executive and Luxury home ranges, but they are waiting for the same reality check to set in that happened several years ago to the lower priced homes. Owners in the Executive and Luxury home market had more assets to try to wait out the market and their homes are only now being priced lower for the actual market as it currently exists.