September 29, Weekly Analysis

Four new listing this past week, and they are highlighted on the list.

Three homes went into Pending this past week: 10028 Sage Hill Way, a 4/3 of 2,194 s.f which had been listed for $341,900 (my sale); 28651 Mountain Meadow Road, a 3/3 of 3,471 s.f. which had been listed from $399,000 — $426,000; and 9533 Sage Hill Way, a 3/3 of 3,255 s.f. which had been listed for $582,000.

One home Closed Escrow (Sold) this past week: 10611 Cerveza Dr. a 4/4 of 2,997 s.f. which sold for $509,000.

The Hidden Meadows market continues to be hot in the price ranges under $600,000 and cold above that price. The good news is that nationally, there are some positive signs and with the exception of those markets that seldom have major price reductions (such as homes with ocean views) and those positive signs are most positive in areas most hard hit. That is a good sign only because all markets cannot stand one area getting too far outside of whatever is its normal position. So long as our weather remains warm, we can hope for continued good results, and given that even our bad weather is not all that bad, perhaps the good sales will continue over the “winter” months.

I make that sunny hope on the multiple offers currently being made on well-priced homes under $450,000. I spoke with of my investors last week and his three latest purchases are remodeled and in escrow, and he is in the market for several more homes. Those investors who “flip” homes in the low market are going to be in play so long as prices remain low. In general, these investors pay cash, so low interest rates are immaterial for them but are important to their Buyers.

These low interest rates are taking money from retired people’s savings – savings that they had depended upon for retirement. It’s called “income redistribution,” and it is purely artificially being forced upon the public by the Federal Reserve manipulating the market. Whether it is a good thing or a bad thing depends upon if you are a retired person living on CD’s or a young buyer looking for a first home.

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September 22, Weekly Analysis

Three new listing this past week, and they are highlighted on the list.

No Meadows homes went into Pending, and only one home closed escrow: 28021 Grassy Way, a 3/2 of 1,768 s.f. which sold for $330,000 having been on the market 131 days.

There are continuing articles in local newspapers about gains in the “Real Estate Market.”

This is misleading, because there is no “real estate market.” There are MANY real estate markets.

The “real estate market” in Rancho Bernardo, with its many community centers, national reputation and acclaimed Poway Unified School District is vastly different from Hidden Meadows, which came by its name honestly. We have no schools, no neighborhood community centers, we have an address of Escondido that has poor schools even by poor California standards, and a community reputation that is less than sterling. It would help our prices if we had a different address, because the fact that we are not actually in Escondido appears to some people as a distinction, not a difference.

There is a belt across North County from north coastal cities, through Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, Crosby Ranch, 4S Ranch, Rancho Bernardo and North Poway that always sells well regardless of the market.

Even within Hidden meadows there are sub-markets that I have mentioned before: Homes in the investor and first-time homebuyer market often get multiple offers and sell quickly. (They may not close quickly because the lenders, particularly lenders of homes in short-sales and foreclosures, are not overly cooperative these days.)

Homes in the Executive market and the Luxury Market in Hidden Meadows have not caught up to the sales rate of the lower priced homes. Homes above $600,000 have always been our “move-up” market – sellers of lower priced homes purchased “up” when their jobs were secure and their business flourished.

More recently, the sales of normally priced homes have been by people underwater, or elderly and moving to retirement homes, or foreclosures and short-sales rather than the usual “move-up” people whose businesses are flourishing. Consequently, until the overall business market improves and confidence returns, the “move-up” market is just marking time.