December 1, Weekly Analysis


No new listings this past week, but one would not expect any during Thanksgiving week.

Two homes went into Pending, one at 10549 Meadow Glen Way East, a 4/3 of 4,278 s.f. which was listed at $449,900, and one at29471 Welk Highland Drive, a 4/5 of 5,237 s.f. which had been listed at $879,900.

Three homes Closed Escrow this past week: 9915 Canyon Country Lane, a 2/2 of 1,746 s.f. which SOLD for $385,000 and had been on the market for 41 days; 28321 Kettering Lane, a 4/4 of 3,244 s.f. which SOLD for $400,000 having been on the market for 419 days; and 10444 Meadow Glen Way East, a 3/4 of 3,224 s.f. which SOLD for $490,000 having been on the market for 26 days.

I have already removed one of my listings from the market for the Holidays and will soon remove another – many people simply do not want their home shown from before Thanksgiving to past Christmas. It is difficult to have family visit during the Holiday Season, and have Realtors showing the house.

The real estate market goes relatively cold during that period, and the activity we currently see has been in the pipeline for many weeks or even months.

We are approaching a low point for inventory, but after the first of the year the inventory will begin to increase, and we should have the list on the second page in February or March if history is any lesson. Our largest inventory will be in May or June – and that is also the time of maximum sales activity.

The Fed has already announced that they will hold interest rates next year at artificially low rates, so with increased business activity and growing consumer confidence the housing market should be very good next year with price rises at the 3% or even greater level for homes below $500,000, and at least stable prices above $500,000. Homes above $500,000 will appear to fall, but only because they will not be selling at near their listed price, but they will be selling at prices higher than the sales prices of this year.

There are distress properties above $500,000 that will sell at higher rates than this year, and that will make Executive and Luxury home prices appear to fall, but if you remember, they didn’t sell at all this past year. I expect more expensive homes to do much better this next year, because there is an artificially low Delta between the over-bid regular homes, and the more expensive and seldom-selling Executive and Luxury homes.