September 1, Weekly Analysis

September 1, Weekly Analysis
Two new listings this past week in The Meadows, and they are displayed with yellow highlight on the list.
No homes went into Pending or Closed Escrow this past week.
This lack of activity was not just Hidden Meadows, but throughout the entire Zip Code of 92026. Partially, this can be attributed to the school year starting and all Buyers with school-age children want their children settled before school, and partially this can be the current lack of inventory in the “Hot” market of starter homes that attract first-time home buyers, and potential rentals that attract investors.
I checked my computer for the list I printed on September 3, 2011 and there were four listings in the $300-$400,000 range and one listing at $299,900!
Right now we only have one listing in the $300,000-$400,000 range, and I suspect it will sell before the listing gets to 20 days or so. It may even attract multiple offers and therefor take a few days longer, but only because of the activity around it. It is priced at a point to attract interest, and I have not even seen it to evaluate the condition of the property.
Local Realtors gathered last week for a Realtors Caravan, always held on Thursday at 9 a.m. – we gather at the Deli and tour a few homes. It must have been six or eight weeks since we had a Caravan, because many homes sold before we could arrange them on Caravan, or the Owner or Realtor (usually “outside Realtors”) didn’t want to bother to have Realtors view their homes. In some cases the homes were under renovation, and then sold before they could be viewed.
In “hot” markets, we have as many as 10-12 Realtors on a weekly Caravan. Many Realtors have dropped out of real estate, either temporarily or permanently, so we now expect perhaps six Realtors and seldom have more than one Caravan a month. Only professional Realtors remain in the market. Hidden Meadows has a core group of EXCELLENT Realtors.
National trends are reporting a slight increase in prices, about a half a percent. What that really means is that this is the bottom of the market. A half a percent is well below the inflation rate, so essentially homes are still losing value, although not price, but losing value at a lower rate.
All markets are based on confidence, and it will take sustained increases in confidence to move the housing market upward. Perhaps after the uncertainty of the national election is removed, we will see market conditions change.

June 11 Weekly Update

Two new listings this past week, and they are highlighted on the obverse.

We had to break our lengthy streak of homes going into Pending, and this was the week: No homes were listed as going into Pending.

And only one home was listed as having completed the sale process: 28720 Sandhurst Way, a 4/3 of 3,220 s.f. which sold at $549,000.

This lag in the sales is an opportunity to offer caveats about reading the information on the other side of the page. (This refers to a weekly listing I have of available Hidden Meadows homes, a list you can get on by sending me an e-mail to allen@allenhemphill.com)

I have included the information that most Buyers inquire about, however some of the information is of questionable value. For example, the age of the house – that is simply the year it was first constructed, and most of the homes in The Meadows have had some remodeling and some have had extensive remodeling. There is nothing in the information to tell you which homes are in original condition, or completely remodeled.

I have always believed that listing the square footage is desirable, but somewhat misleading. A house that is 3,000 feet long and one foot wide is a 3,000 s.f. home that is unlivable, so obviously there are homes that live “smaller” than their listed footage, and those whose layout lives “larger.’

Layout counts.

While not every home that is .25 acres or less is in the Covenant, that is a good Rule of Thumb, and while every home that is on an acre or more is not necessarily out of the Covenant, that again is a good Rule of Thumb  There are exceptions to those “rules” but when guessing if a home is in the Covenant, those are good guidelines. Experienced local Realtors are the best guide. It’s like sewers – a FEW homes out of the Covenant are actually on sewer, but the Rule of Thumb is homes out of the Covenant are on septic tanks.

Mkt Time (Market Time) is an absolutely useless measure. A competent Realtor can manipulate this number with ease, and most do.

Finally, $/sf is an almost worthless measure. It does not take into account, acreage, or views, or golf course locations, or the difference in the quality of construction (tile vs. granite, swimming pools/spa, dual pane windows, etc.) $/sf is really a useful item only for tract homes, not for custom homes, and 85% of The Meadows are custom homes..